eToro profile for Copy Trades: https://www.etoro.com/people/shuharicapital

June 2025 Portfolio Update: Shuhari Capital shifts to defense as gold gains momentum and U.S. equity leadership fades. See what changed and why.

Macro conditions continued to evolve under stress: rising trade tensions, defensive rotation among institutions, and weakening market breadth. In response, the Shuhari Capital Engine has rebalanced the portfolio with a strong lean toward capital preservation without abandoning opportunity.

Strategy Logic: The Engine Behind the Portfolio

At Shuhari Capital, we don’t follow the headlines — we follow the signals. Our portfolio is structured around three independent, rules-based sleeves, plus one adaptive overlay. These are the building blocks used.

1. Stability Core

A macro-aware foundation that adjusts global exposure to equities, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin based on prevailing economic trends.

2. Momentum Chaser

A volatility-weighted rotation into the strongest global asset classes — from developed and emerging equities to commodities and bonds — based on multi-horizon momentum and trend filters.

3. Sector Navigator

A refined sector rotation engine using relative strength, momentum, and trend filters to allocate into the most resilient equity sectors — globally and in the U.S.

4. Structural Overlay

A macro risk compass. When U.S. leadership shows structural weakness, this overlay tilts capital into gold, emerging market bonds, and Asia-Pacific equities — and away from overexposed U.S. assets.

What Changed in June?

This month, our system registered one of the clearest shifts in market regime since early 2022. As a result:

• Gold is now present in all three sleeves — a first since this strategy launched
• U.S. equity exposure has been cut further, with most U.S. sector ETFs failing to meet trend or volatility criteria
• Minimum Volatility and defensive sectors (like Utilities and Consumer Staples) gained allocations
• Asia-Pacific equities and emerging market bonds are now included via fallback logic and overlay

Sector Navigator: Defensive Dominates

U.S. sectors failed en masse. Only three — Real Estate, Utilities, and Communication Services — passed our filters, and none showed positive momentum.

This led to a partial fallback to defensive assets, including:

• Minimum Volatility Equity (EUN0.XETRA)
• EU Government Bonds (IBCL.XETRA)
• Gold (8PSG.XETRA)

Globally, the picture was equally cautious:

• Winners included Financials (WFIN.AS), Utilities (WUTI.AS), and Communication Services (XWTS.XETRA) — but all with muted strength.
• This points to a market seeking safety, not growth.

Momentum Chaser: A Golden Month

The Momentum Chaser also adjusted drastically:

• Gold (8PSG.XETRA) and Min Vol Equity (EUN0.XETRA) ranked highest
• U.S. and Developed Markets equity allocations dropped off
• Commodity momentum remained weak — broad commodities (SXRS.XETRA) were excluded

Volatility penalties and trend filters further accelerated this shift, pushing high-beta assets out of allocation.

Stability Core: Macro Filters Activate

The macro-driven Stability Core made two defensive tilts:

• Increased bond exposure as yields stabilized and equity momentum lagged
• Boosted gold allocation in response to real-rate pressures and political risk

Bitcoin remains a small allocation (2.5%), unchanged due to neutral macro filters.

🔧 Structural Overlay: U.S. Weakness Triggers Tilt

Three macro triggers activated the overlay:

1. Breadth collapse in U.S. equity sectors (<30% above 200DMA)
2. USD showing weakness against FX basket
3. Emerging markets outperforming developed equities

This caused a reallocation of 10% total capital, split across:

• +4% to Gold
• +3% to EM Bonds (LEMB)
• +3% to Asia-Pacific Equities (AAXJ)

Decreases were made by reducing U.S. equity and bond exposure in affected sleeves.

The Why Behind the Changes

June’s rebalance reflects one principle: resilience over reach. While there’s still upward momentum in some parts of the global equity market, our model flagged:

• Declining US market breadth (fewer stocks holding up indices)
• Structural headwinds from US fiscal and trade policy
• Momentum in EM and commodity-linked assets showing relative strength

Gold, typically considered a hedge, now shows both price strength and institutional rotation support. It’s not a safe haven bet—it’s a trend-following conviction.

What This Means for Copy Traders

You don’t need to do anything. All allocations are now reflected live on the eToro portfolio. But here’s what you should know:

• This is one of the most defensive allocations we’ve run to date
• It’s not a prediction — it’s a reaction to weakening leadership and strong alternatives
• We’ll rotate out when signals shift — and rotate in when strength returns

What’s Next?

We’re watching:

• USD weakening trends (potential FX implications)
• Sector-level momentum shifts (Healthcare, Energy, Defensive Tech)
• Performance data for our new Alpha Overlay (stock-level factor sleeve)

As always, our goal is clarity, consistency, and calculated adaptation.

📎 Read the full PDF: Download Here, , Powered by the Shuhari Capital Engine